At the start of the New Year, newspaper and magazines are all busy making predictions of what the year may have in store. Personally, I always enjoy reading The Economist’s “The World in…”. In that magazine, predictions are made of how political events may unfold in the year to come, how the economy will fare and what will be trends in technology. The nicest part is when they look back at the predictions they made a year ago, and assess which ones really happened, and where they were completely wrong. At IRC, we do a similar exercise.
Published on: 19/01/2015
About every four years or so, we look at trends and developments that may affect the WASH sector, and create the environment in which IRC seeks to fulfil its mission. Based on that, we try and adjust our strategies and approaches. At the moment, we are starting the exercise again. So, a first thing to do is to check back on the trends we identified several years ago, and see whether they indeed happened, but also whether they were really relevant for WASH.
Some of the trends were easy to predict and indeed unfolded as expected. For example, urbanization continues. That is not a surprise. These are very gradual global shifts that are not subject to sudden increases or reductions in speed. But it is therefore also one that the WASH sector can relatively easily anticipate and respond to. The same can be said for trends like further increase in water scarcity.
Other trends are more susceptible to sudden change – particularly the financial ones. We predicted that total aid to WASH might stabilize or even go down. But the latest GLAAS report shows that ODA to WASH has slightly increased. But often these global numbers are not so relevant for us – or for other organisations in the sector. It is of interest whether in a particular country where we (or other organisations) work, the funding for WASH goes up or down. In spite of some improvements in tracking financial flows in the sector, data is often just to scarce to make good predictions.
Finally, there are trends – or even better events – we just didn't foresee. We didn't predict that Narendra Modi would become prime minister of India, let alone that he would give the highest level of political leadership one can think of to sanitation.
We used the various trends to construct possible scenarios. These are narratives that combine the possible extremes in trend developments. Looking at the ones we defined a few years ago, we see the scenario of "two steps forward, one step back" evolving. That is one which is very much a business as usual scenario: some countries making great progress, others seeing set-backs, but against a background of gradual shift from aid to loans and public investments.
Once we have reviewed all trends, and identified some possible additional ones, we can start making new predictions. Anticipating this, I would like to make a first prediction for WASH in 2015 here: There will be an SDG for water and sanitation, but not such an extensive one as is on the table now. The draft SDG talks about universal access to water and sanitation and that part, I think, will remain. But it also includes a series of targets for improved water resources management, to ensure that these are sustainable. Though I very much like that, I fear they are too much detail. And I follow the predictions of The Economist that there will be some significant cutting down on the targets for the SDGs.
But, let's not spoil the fun by giving any predictions from my side. Rather, I want to invite you to become WASH trend watchers. In which of the trends that we identified a few years ago were we right, and where we were completely wrong? Are there trends that we didn't even pick up? And what are your expectations for the WASH sector – either in your country, or globally – for 2015 and let's say the next five years. Please share us your thoughts in the comments below. Note, that this should not focus on what you would want to happen, but what might happen.
Happy trend watching!
At IRC we have strong opinions and we value honest and frank discussion, so you won't be surprised to hear that not all the opinions on this site represent our official policy.
